If you're still looking at the Gallup Daily Tracking polls to see how your candidate is doing in the Presidential horse race, you need to stop. Now. The electoral college elects the president, and Obama won't get more electoral votes from California the more popular he is here. That said...
The Quinnipiac poll of the three big swing states - Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -released today shows Obama pulling ahead in all of them. Barring any repeat shenannigans in Ohio or Florida, this bodes very well for Obama.
Consider: 1) the economy will not be getting better in the next 30 days, and conventional wisdom and polling agree that Obama benefits when the economy is our number one worry, and 2) Obama has put the one debate that was supposedly his weak spot behind him. Things will likely only get better for Obama in the upcoming debates.
Now, I don't think Florida is remotely settled. The Jewish American population there seems to be uneasy (at best) with Barack Obama. And there's no way I'll put it past Florida officials to screw up the election in their state. But its a hugely important state and worth watching closely.
Furthermore, let's put this to rest: even if Joe Biden calls Sarah Palin a tartlette in tomorrow night's debate, its not going to sway the electorate one way the other. People will vote the top of the ticket this year.
Just for the record, here are the swing states you need to watch and their respective electoral votes:
Florida - 27
Pennsylvania - 21
Ohio - 20
Michigan - 17
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Indiana - 11
Missouri - 11
Minnesota - 10
Colorado - 9
Nevada - 5
New Mexico - 5
New Hampshire - 4
Montana - 3
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