What I'll be looking at tomorrow night

One day out from the election, here's what I'll be watching for:

1) Pennsylvania and Ohio. Obama has solid leads in polls from both states. If those polls are accurate, and if undecided voters break for Obama even by 1/3, he's got those states.

2) Virginia. With Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia in his pocket, Obama could take a lot of losses for the rest of the night and still come out way ahead. With Pennsylvania and Virginia only in his pocket, Obama could afford to lose Florida and Ohio by picking up some of the smaller Bush states like Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa.

Why I'm not betting on Florida: its just too unreliable. For two reasons. First, the polls show the state within a couple of points. Yes, all across the country black voters have been turning out in record numbers for Obama, and that would theoretically boost Obama's chances in Florida. But - I'll be blunt - I don't trust those votes to get counted either accurately, fairly or in a timely manner in Florida. They just don't have a good track record.

Why Democrats are afraid: the Bush campaign teams were ruthless in their voter suppression and disenfranchisement efforts. For a large part of my adult lifetime, that has been the reality of our electoral fight. We fear complacency on the part of our voters who have, historically, been unreliable, and we fear a fix where the fight is close and crucial, like Ohio and Florida.

The Obama campaign has given us some reassurance. By widening the ground game so that the election does not hinge on two states, the campaign has, perhaps, spread the field too wide to be meddled with.

So we go forth unto election day filled with cautious optimism.

And in California we have a nauseating anxiety in our stomachs, waiting waiting waiting - hoping - to see Prop. 8 defeated. My friend the minister-in-training says he's out trying to spread the word: pro-8 is NOT pro-gay. We wish him God speed in the fight to keep discrimination out of our constitution.