This historic moment

Before I move on to obsess about what we need to do next as a nation, I should pause to acknowledge just what this moment means.

It wasn't just about Barack Obama's election last night. It was about the day. It was about the process. It was about the illiterate black man to went to his polling place with help from a friend to cast his vote. The middle aged man in Los Angeles who waited for hours in line to vote because, as he said, this time his vote mattered. It was about my 18-year-old cousin, a white girl from an exurb who voted for the first time yesterday and will never know a time when a black candidate wasn't entirely possible.

But it was very much also about The Win. About the young woman who fell to her knees and sobbed upon hearing the news and whom a cameraman, to his credit, held on for solid minutes as this moment sank in to all of us who understood. About the children of all colors who will know as absolute fact that they can be anything they want to be in America. About those few who fought in the darkest days, men like John Lewis and Jesse Jackson, who had no real right to think that they would ever see this day and who, thankfully - so thankfully - were there to usher it in and remind us what the human cost of this journey has been.

We are a better country today. We are the fulfillment of our promises. And we are poised to make it mean something.

Now get to work.

Another Senate seat in the blue column

According to the Oregonian tonight, Jeff Merkley (D) wins Gordon Smith's (R) Senate seat. You'll recall that Smith garnered national attention running ads that failed to mention that he was a Republican and went further, touting his work in the Senate with Barack Obama.

Turns out that ain't blue enough for Oregon, even in an election where, surprisingly, many Republicans held on to their Senate seats with incumbents largely hanging on to their seats, despite Congress' nadir approval ratings.

Zombies for Obama

Feeling a little empty now that the election is over?


Obama Win Causes Obsessive Supporters To Realize How Empty Their Lives Are

Bill Ayers speaks

The man who was quite possibly the most disciplined character of this political season, "unrepentant terrorist" Bill Ayers, finally spoke to a reporter yesterday. And - would you believe it? - turns out he's actually... repentant. Could ya have guessed? Could ya? Huh?

Here are some choice bits:

"Pal around together? What does that mean? Share a milkshake with two straws?" Ayers said in his first interview since the controversy began. "I think my relationship with Obama was probably like thousands of others in Chicago. And, like millions and millions of others, I wish I knew him better."
...

Asked Tuesday if he wishes he had set more bombs, Ayers answered, "Never."

He also said he had regrets.

"I wish I'd been wiser," he said. "I wish I'd been more effective. I wish I'd been more unifying. I wish I'd been more principled."

Change has finally come

Now let's get to work.

Here are the results as they come in:

What if this was your FIRST TIME?

A message from my 18-year-old cousin, sent from her iPhone, on this, her first election day:

I officially voted!!

Obama, no on 8 and 4!!!!

Imagine if this was the first vote you'd ever cast. Pretty special. Let's not forget how historic today is and how important it will be to say that you were a part of it.

No matter what, the lefties are winning

Fun Fact:
Whether John McCain or Barack Obama wins this election, our next President will be the third consecutive left-handed President.

Perspective from one who's seen voting

Another election day story, this one from Christiane Amanpour on her blog, In the Field:

This election will change the world

Posted: 1613 GMT

NEW YORK — Finding myself in New York City this U.S. election Day, I saw scenes that reminded me of the first democratic elections I covered in Afghanistan in 2004, or Iraq in 2005.

Voting lines in New York wrapped right around the block.

Scenes that reminded me of the historic election in South Africa in 1994 when a black man, Nelson Mandela, was elected president thus ending generations of white minority rule known as apartheid.

Or 1998 in Iran when women and young people turned out en masse to elect the first ever reform president, the moderate cleric Mohammad Khatami.

The enduring motif from those elections were the massively long lines at the polling centers. Men and women standing patiently, sometimes for hours, to cast their first ever vote for a hopeful secure future.

And that’s what I saw this morning in New York City as the polls opened. As I rode my son to school by bike, we passed a public school-turned voting center that made us gasp.

There were lines wrapped right around the whole block.

People were waiting happily, patiently, with their take-away coffee cups, snapping pictures of each other, recording what they clearly believed was their role in this historic democratic drama.

I asked some whether they had ever stood in line so long to vote here in the U.S. “Never” they said, smiling. TV and radio report similar long queues across the country.

Remember, the U.S. is never known for its high voter turnouts.

Everywhere you look the mood smacks of history…almost a foregone conclusion. Even New York City’s right-wing leading tabloids, are calling it for Obama.

These past few days, people riding in elevators, walking the corridors of their workplace, hopping in cabs or taking care of their kids, have all been discussing their plans for today, election day: Planning not just to cast their own vote, but to help shuttle the elderly, and cajole new young voters to the polls.

Meantime cable and broadcast TV networks can barely contain themselves: Newspaper articles quote news executives all but saying they will be able to call the election as soon as polls close early evening.

No election has electrified the U.S. like this since 1968. But the whole world wishes it could cast a vote in this one. Whatever happens, this U.S. election will change the world. Stay tuned.

John Cusack on The Big Lie

I'm crushing on him harder than the time he held up a boom box in the rain.

Check out John Cusack's capitalist critique on the Huffington Post. Here's a choice bit:

So define the big lie: free marketers want free markets. Not so, the facts say. They are the biggest welfare freaks on the planet.

These men and keepers of the faith would lecture us with a straight face on the evil socialists/ communists/terrorists /vampires/space aliens who would dare "redistribute wealth" by amending the tax code. Two wars and the only shared sacrifice they want is more tax cuts for the rich and for the U.S. citizenry to continue shopping. As Sidney Falco said, you gotta give it to them, their gall is gorgeous.

Fox News and the Halloween election

Hah! Just turned on Fox News to catch the tail end of this statement:

"...And he is the only Black Panther we've found watching the polls here so far."

"Thanks, Adam. And we'll keep watching that story."

I'm SO glad that Fox News is keeping an eye on the scary Black Panthers this election. Because, you know, it was like 1978 the last time they were relevant in this country's politics. But you gotta keep an eye on these 60s radicals, man.

Fox News. Fairly relevant?

OK - this one made me cry...

This is what it's all about, no?

Huge turnout -- bigger than I’ve ever seen at our polling place. Lots and lots of young African-Americans. People with their children in tow. Taking photos with cellular telephones and video-cameras to document what everyone agreed was a wonderful sight to see. Great to see.

When I finally made it through the 2-hour-long line and nearly to the voting booth, an older African-American man in front of the line kept letting people go in front of him. When he told me to go ahead, I said, “Don’t you need to vote too?” He told me that he was going to need help and that a woman with whom I guess he’d been waiting had agreed to help him. So he was waiting for her. She happened to be in the booth next to me and so I heard them talking when he went up to vote. It was clear very quickly that he could not read. She helped him to make his choices. I couldn’t help but overhear who was his choice. It was a great thing to see that he was so determined to vote -- most likely for the first time in his life. I think change has already happened to some extent…

Again, courtesy the War Room at Salon.com

The good mood in Philly

This anecdote on last night's Biden rally in south Philly, courtesy Gabriel Winant for Salon.com's War Room:

A series of local pols warmed up the crowd, starting with Bob Brady, a hulking sausage of a congressman. The former carpenter kicked off the rally with a series of union-guy shout-outs: "Jimmy! Harry! Guy! Johnny Doc! Manny! Ronny! Tony!" before, with a joke about hiding his knuckles, handing off the lectern to a nun and walking backstage to smoke a cigarette with a cop. A series of local luminaries followed, including Mayor Michael Nutter, Gov. Ed Rendell and Maryland's governor, Martin O'Malley.

Every speaker made sure to emphasize how important it was that voters stay in line Tuesday, no matter how long the wait might be. Rendell in particular captured the spirit of the night.

"I don't care if you're in line for two and a half hours. Don't bitch about it," the governor said. "Do you remember when South Africa got the vote for the first time? People stood out in the heat for five and a half hours to vote for Nelson Mandela. Why? Because their country's future was on the line ... Make a party out of it. Sing songs. 'Kumbaya,' you name it. 'Philadelphia Freedom.' Whatever. Have fun."

To hear a crowd of south Philly carpenters and electricians cheering wildly for Nelson Mandela and "Kumbaya" seems as good a measure as any of the kind of Democratic Party that looks poised to win the White House Tuesday.

Sweet.

Obama wins Dixville Notch, NH 15-6

The first results are in at 9:11pm Pacific time on Nov. 3rd:

The historic (since 1960) first polling place in the nation, little Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, is Obama territory, preferring Barack Obama more than 2-1 over McCain.

Let them be the first of many. Cheers everyone!

Happy Election Day!!!

More on the Socialist Republican state of Alaska

Some great mock-ads courtesy of KalVoid. (Thanks!)


PRIVATIZE THE PROFITS • SOCIALIZE THE LOSSES

What I'll be looking at tomorrow night

One day out from the election, here's what I'll be watching for:

1) Pennsylvania and Ohio. Obama has solid leads in polls from both states. If those polls are accurate, and if undecided voters break for Obama even by 1/3, he's got those states.

2) Virginia. With Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia in his pocket, Obama could take a lot of losses for the rest of the night and still come out way ahead. With Pennsylvania and Virginia only in his pocket, Obama could afford to lose Florida and Ohio by picking up some of the smaller Bush states like Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa.

Why I'm not betting on Florida: its just too unreliable. For two reasons. First, the polls show the state within a couple of points. Yes, all across the country black voters have been turning out in record numbers for Obama, and that would theoretically boost Obama's chances in Florida. But - I'll be blunt - I don't trust those votes to get counted either accurately, fairly or in a timely manner in Florida. They just don't have a good track record.

Why Democrats are afraid: the Bush campaign teams were ruthless in their voter suppression and disenfranchisement efforts. For a large part of my adult lifetime, that has been the reality of our electoral fight. We fear complacency on the part of our voters who have, historically, been unreliable, and we fear a fix where the fight is close and crucial, like Ohio and Florida.

The Obama campaign has given us some reassurance. By widening the ground game so that the election does not hinge on two states, the campaign has, perhaps, spread the field too wide to be meddled with.

So we go forth unto election day filled with cautious optimism.

And in California we have a nauseating anxiety in our stomachs, waiting waiting waiting - hoping - to see Prop. 8 defeated. My friend the minister-in-training says he's out trying to spread the word: pro-8 is NOT pro-gay. We wish him God speed in the fight to keep discrimination out of our constitution.

Exurbs' '08 Election Guide

Get it here and dork out on Tuesday night.

Includes state-by-state map with poll close times in battleground states, hotly contested Senate and House races, and a do-it-yourself electoral vote predictor. If I could think of a drinking contest, I would.


Page 1 - Electoral projection map of states, battleground poll closings



Page 2 - Hotly contested Senate races, part I.



Page 3 - Hotly contested Senate races, part II.



Page 4 - A couple of interesting and hotly contested House races.



Page 5 - Are you a bettin' man? ... or gal?

The climate going in to Tuesday

Well, the predictions are now coming in and, while we like to ridicule the pundits, the fact of the matter is they pay attention to the details. Drumroll, please...

Barack Obama to take 340 electoral votes at least.

But here's the interesting thing: in the last 50 or so years, that's not a very commanding total. Ronald Reagan won reelection in 1984 525 to Mondale's 13. And George H.W. Bush won his presidency over Michael Dukakis 426 to 111. Nixon beat McGovern 520 to 17.

In fact, Republicans have regularly stuck it to Democrats. The last time a Democrat was able to cross even the 400 electoral vote threshold was LBJ in 1964 over Barry Goldwater (486 to 52).

It seems highly unlikely at this point that the Dems will get their fillibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the Senate. They may have up to 58 seats come Wednesday.

The takeaway: yet again, all of this points to the fact that Democrats need to see this election as an opportunity to build on a movement. They risk squandering the opportunity if they look on their wins as an unequivocal mandate.

When did it become OK for adults to trick-or-treat?

Its not.

If you have or can get a tattoo, you have no business asking people for candy unless there is a cash register between you and the person you're asking.

WTF?!

Voting anti-GOP, not pro-Dem

I've long been of the belief that the country's Democratic-leaning pivot this election season can only be seen as a rejection of Republican leadership. I do not think the electorate has somehow found Progressive religion.

I've been telling anyone who cares to listen that the Dems had better not see this election as a mandate giving them "political capital".

The Dems need to walk away from this election seeing it as an opportunity to show the American people what we can do. We need to work not only to make their lives better, but to make Washington work, to avoid grandstanding and divisive politics and restore the better angels of our nature.

I see signs that the Obama campaign is thinking the same way. Take this piece in Chris Cillizza's blog, The Fix. Cillizza reports that the Obama campaign sees Florida as an important symbol that they cannot walk away from, even if they don't need the state for an electoral win. Cillizza reports:

In the last few weeks, Obama has sent his top two field generals -- "Sunny" Steve Hildebrand and Paul Tewes -- to direct ground operations in the state.

Surrogates for Obama are also flooding the state. Last night, following his 30-minute national informercial, the Illinois senator appeared alongside former President Bill Clinton at a midnight rally in Kissimmee. Then today came the news that former Vice President Al Gore and his wife, Tipper, will make stops in West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow to lead early vote rallies.

What does this mean? It means that the Obama campaign is not willing to write Florida and its diverse population off. It means that they feel they need to keep working to show they care about Florida and want to represent Florida. That is the beauty of the 50 state strategy: it backs up Obama's talk about our not being "a red state America or a blue state America, but a United States of America."

Right on.