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A sign of economic movement in home sales

According to this report from NPR this morning, home sales in southern California were up dramatically in September.  Southern California has had one of the highest forclosure rates in the nation, so what we're seeing here is bargain shoppers getting into the market at what could now be the nadir of the mortgage meltdown.

What does this mean?  These figures are from a period before the credit freeze that spurred Congressional action and a rollercoaster DOW, so we'll have to see how buyers fared in October when there was apparently no credit to be had.  Still, with 2 weeks left in the month, credit markets are thawing and it will be interesting to see if lenders think these So. Cal. purchases are a safe enough bet.

If we're lucky, the credit freeze will have been a blip, and people who have had some money but didn't jump 2 years ago will finally be able to take the home-ownership plunge.  That will begin working the bad mortgages through the system and get home values back on an upswing.  

There is still the question of what all this means to those who were forclosed upon, some who lied in order to get financing on homes they couldn't afford in the first place, but others who were handed or encouraged to take more than they could afford.

But for the grace of God...  The other day my husband and I were recalling our first tentative peerings into the world of home ownership, contacting a mortgage broker to find out if there was anything out there we could afford.  See, this is the thing: blame the buyer all you want for getting into a bad mortgage, but most of us do not understand the ins and outs of mortgage rates, terms, and conditions.  We rely on advice from the people who are experts: bankers and mortgage brokers.  Our broker told us we could afford up to 1/2 our monthly income on a mortgage - and would be approved for it.  With no down payment.

Fortunately husband and I are skittish creatures, prone to suspicion and fear.  We said thanks but no thanks to that huge offer and took something a little more modest.  (We're liberals to the core - always thinking "conserve".)  However, many people trusted their lenders and took the plunge.  Whose fault is it that they're now drowning?

GOP: crumbling from the center

To recap, let us note all of the Republicans who are now defecting from the John McCain/Rick Davis/Sarah Palin GOP:

Colin Powell - retired US Army General and fmr. Secretary of State

Ken Adelman - conservative Republican and original neo-con

Mickey Edwards - Fmr. Oklahoma Congressman and founding member of the Heritage Foundation

Christopher Buckley - National Review contributer, author, son of the late Wm. F. Buckley

Peggy Noonan - Fmr. Reagan speechwriter, author, and conservative columnist

George Will - conservative columnist

David Brooks - conservative columnist

Michael Smerconish - conservative talk-show host and author

I have to say, one thing I love about Peggy Noonan is that she speaks EXACTLY as she writes.  Its just archaic and wonderful.

Granted, McCain and Davis would write all of this off as the treachery of the irrelevant Georgetown cocktail circuit, but that may be even more evidence of how these people are narrowing the party.

Thoughts on the Powell endorsement

No doubt - NO doubt - you've heard plenty by now about Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama, but let me point out one thing about that endorsement that you may not have heard about if you didn't see it live.

Mr. Powell made a very lovely point that I think its important for all of us to consider.  It was about the whisper campaign that Barack Obama is "really a Muslim" or a "secret Muslim" or just outright "Muslim" as an email I received stated.  Powell said this:

I'm also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, "Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim." Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he's a Christian.  He's always been a Christian.  But the really right answer is, what if he is?  Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America.  Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president?  [my emphasis]

Just give that some thought and remember what is good about America.  You can watch Powell's endorsement in its entirety here.

GOP voter registration fraud. Yes, GOP voter registration fraud

Well, if you thought ACORN had cornered the market on voter registration fraud, get some bi-partisan religion.  

In a great story followed by the LA Times, Mark Jacoby, owner of a firm that the California Republican Party hired this year to register thousand of voters, was arrested over the weekend on suspicion of voter registration fraud.  Turns out Mr. Jacoby falsely registered himself at a California address that is not his own in order to meet California's legal requirement to register others to vote.

THIS AFTER dozens of California voters came forward to report that his firm, YPM, had duped them into registering Republican by asking them to sign a petition for "tougher penalties against child molesters".  According to the Times, "YPM has been accused of using bait-and-switch tactics across the country.  Election officials and lawmakers have launched investigations into the activities of YPM workers in Florida and Massachusettes.  In Arizona, the firm was recently a defendant in a civil rights lawsuit."

In California, if these voters didn't discover the change, they would be disqualified from voting in their party's next primary.

So, I know they're both bad, but indulge me: which is worse?  Filling out a bunch of obviously false registration cards (Tony Romo, Mickey Mouse, Jimmy John, etc.) or duping an actual person into changing their party affiliation?

PS - Unlike ACORN, YPM does pay by the card, not by the hour.

(Tip of the hat to Rob for this one.)

Resurrecting McCarthy

Well, this one stopped me in my tracks.

There I was putting away laundry in the bedroom and before I know it I've been drawn to the television because this crazy woman just said WHAT???

Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann went above and beyond in her demonization of the liberal left/leftist/anti-American element of the US Congress and of liberal/Democrat Americans.  The words were really interchangeable for Rep. Bachmann.  Check it out for yourself, below.  

As Salon's Alex Koppelman put it, this probably just an example of what happens when enflamatory talking points are put into the hands of blithering idiots.  (OK, I might be embellishing on Koppelman's wording a bit.) He may be right, but McCain campaign is playing with fire, and McCain KNOWS it.  You know he does.  

And that's why there's a bit of a cognitive dissonance when you see all the hilarity of the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner.  Everyone yucking it up as though what is being spewed out into American society right now is just harmless tomfoolery.  It is not.  It is virulent and dangerous and irresponsible.  When I look at John McCain these days, all I feel is rising concern.

UPDATE: Since this post was originally published, Bachmann's Democratic opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg, has raised some $700,000 in campaign contributions.  How ya like them apples, Bachmann!

Powell to appear on Meet the Press

Fmr. Secretary of State Colin Powell is scheudled to appear on Meet the Press this Sunday morning, and its rumored he may finally choose to endorse for President... Barack Obama.

If the rumors are true, it would be an enormous coup for Obama, who has been criticized by the McCain campaign as naive in his foreign policy cred.  It would also be a persuasive arguement to independents and moderate Republicans who were gung ho for a Powell candidacy 9 years ago and who have taken a second or third look at Obama.

It might also give a little tail wind to a campaign that appears to be worrying about keeping their momentum up with 2.5 weeks to go and a strong lead in the current polls.

P.S. - Look for Bill Kristol to demand an apology if this happens, as he predicted it a couple of months ago and was strongly repudiated by Powell's people.

California is anti-America?

Well, at least the GOP is finally being direct about it.  In their mind, anyone who isn't pro-McCain/Palin is apparently anti-America.  From WashPo:

Palin also made a point of mentioning that she loved to visit the "pro-America" areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one. No word on which states she views as unpatriotic.

An obvious candidate might be California -- a state Palin has campaigned in -- because, as she told the audience, she and McCain have encountered problems enlisting famous performers in their cause.

Can McCain and Obama be funny?

If you saw last night's Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner, you know the answer is an emphatic "Yes". 

If my post below of Purple and Brown was a mental palette-cleanser late in the election season, this was a good political reset button, reminding us that John McCain and Barack Obama are still human.  McCain actually had the best lines, like his explanation of the nicknames he and his friend Barack have for each other, and Obama came right back with his October surprise: that his middle name is actually Steve.  This bit from Obama is great in text - the delivery wasn't as good:

But, look, I don't want to be coy about this. We're a couple weeks from an important election. Americans have a big choice to make, and if anybody feels like they don't know me by now, let me try to give you some answers. Who is Barack Obama? Contrary to the rumors you have heard, I was not born in a manger. I was actually born on Krypton and sent here by my father Jorel to save the planet Earth ...

If you want to check it out the speeches at length, here you go:

Post endorses Obama

Even the Washington Post's endorsement seemed arbitrarily "fair and balanced", but where it was right it was right:

Not even his fiercest critics would blame President Bush for all of these problems, and we are far from being his fiercest critic. But for the past eight years, his administration, while pursuing some worthy policies (accountability in education, homeland security, the promotion of freedom abroad), has also championed some stunningly wrongheaded ones (fiscal recklessness, torture, utter disregard for the planet's ecological health) and has acted too often with incompetence, arrogance or both. A McCain presidency would not equal four more years, but outside of his inner circle, Mr. McCain would draw on many of the same policymakers who have brought us to our current state. We believe they have richly earned, and might even benefit from, some years in the political wilderness.

...But Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment.

Spreading the wealth

The disdain was dripping as John McCain pooh-poohed Barack Obama's suggestion in last night's debate that we need to spread the wealth.  "Hey," McCain says, "Joe the Plumber should be left alone to create more wealth so he can create more jobs."

OK.  Is that what happens?  

Here's what I think happens.  I think that Joe the Plumber and his huge plumbing company isn't what we're talking about here, since Joe would have to make $250k after business deductions.  I think we're actually talking about owners and boards of large businesses who DON'T create new jobs with their wealth.  They use it to pay exorbinant salaries and bonuses to executives who lay off thousands of employees.  They spend it on spas retreats and golden parachutes and partridge hunting. 

Because, you see, the wealth is what goes to the CEOs for cutting jobs and cutting costs in order to raise stock prices.

Just so we're clear.

Typical post-debate commentary

Post-show analysis: The Last Debate

All in all, John McCain did much better in this debate than he has in any other. He made some strong points that seemed backed by strong conviction. However, I really think he hurt himself in moments of sarcasm, impatience, and incredulity.

What was with some of those eye expressions?? Were wild crazy eyes supposed to poke holes in Obama's arguments?

This was definitely Obama's weakest performance, but he more than held his own, so in the end he was more successful in doing what he needed to do. McCain may gain a little ground, but probably not very much.

And, by the way, Obama answered the questions about Bill Ayers and ACORN tonight. Unless the McCain campaign, the GOP, or the media can show us any evidence that Obama was not telling the truth, this subject should be closed.

UPDATE: Bill Kristol on FOX News tonight shrugging his shoulders and simply saying that Obama looked Presidential and had a better arguement as to why he should be President: if that doesn't sound like a death-knell, I don't know what does. Oh, and Juan Williams appeared to agree. Daaaamn.

"He might be a terrorist, but at least he's not a Republican!"

OK, so take a look at the post below. I just took it directly from Ben Smith's blog on Politico because you should read it in its entirety. What does this say about the current mood of the country? Read and I'll meet you back on the other side...

Voting for Obama anyway

I just got an astounding e-mail from a Republican consultant I know well. He's a guy who's always thought Obama had a "glass jaw," and was always among those agitating for hitting Obama harder.

Recently, he conducted a focus group in an upper-Midwestern state, showing them the kind of ad he thought would work: A no-holds-barred attack, cut for an independent group, which hasn't aired.

I'm just going to reprint his amazed e-mail about the focus group:

Reagan Dems and Independents. Call them blue-collar plus. Slightly more Target than Walmart.

Yes, the spot worked. Yes, they believed the charges against Obama. Yes, they actually think he's too liberal, consorts with bad people and WON'T BE A GOOD PRESIDENT...but they STILL don't give a f***. They said right out, "He won't do anything better than McCain" but they're STILL voting for Obama.

The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups:

54 year-old white male, voted Kerry '04, Bush '00, Dole '96, hunter, NASCAR fan...hard for Obama said: "I'm gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He's gonna be a bad president. But I won't ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President."

The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don't know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work and that's why I'm supporting Barack."

I felt like I was taking crazy pills. I sat on the other side of the glass and realized...this really is the Apocalypse. The Seventh Seal is broken and its time for eight years of pure, delicious crazy...

So has the country finally become so bankrupt that those persistent GOP talking points have finally shaken loose? "We hate socialism, and big government, and tax-and-spend liberalism," they seem to say, "but we don't give a rats ass anymore because everything is going to hell and someone needs to step in and FIX it."

Here's where the problem lies: "TRUST US" said the Republicans. TRUST deregulation. TRUST Wall Street. TRUST trickle-down. TRUST the free market. TRUST the moral majority.

They did, and here we are. Now they need someone to fix it. It may be "Big Government" stepping in, but at least Obama is offering to do it. The list of people who've shown zero strength of leadership are staggering: Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, McCain, industry executives. Frankly, Sarah Palin is the only person whose shown initiative in an executive role, and SHE raised taxes on oil companies during a state budget SURPLUS. Explain to me what she knows about dealing with dire financial straights!

Sadly, this situation represents a major opportunity for Dems to put some significant rebuilding efforts in place. And, if history teaches us anything, just as with FDR and Bill Clinton, once the nation is rebuilt the electorate will return control to the Repubs who will just go and squander it all over again.

That's what Prop. 8 is about

There you go. That's what Prop. 8 is about:



See more videos at the HOMOtracker's YouTube page.

Have you donated yet to NO ON PROP.8?

Yes, we are 29th in infant mortality!

Wow. Unreal. Aren't we so proud of our free-market healthcare system??

The U.S. now ranks 29th among industrial countries for infant mortalities.

That's right: we're now tied with Slovakia and Poland. Shameful. No other word to describe it.

You know, if you can't admit that our national stature is crumbling, you're in total denial. And if you'd rather get a tax break than do something meaningful about it, you aren't patriotic.

I'm so sick of our spoiled, self-centered, me-first attitude that calls any type of group effort "Socialism". Anyone who is still complaining about socialism needs to get a life, some self-sacrifice and some national pride.

Cleese on Palin

Just in case you're a drama geek or equivalent who thinks that Python are God, you can't beat John Cleese's reaction to the question posed (replete with parrot references):



And, in case you missed it:

Ode to Sean Hannity
by John Cleese

Aping urbanity
Oozing with vanity
Plump as a manatee
Faking humanity
Journalistic calamity
Intellectual inanity
Fox Noise insanity
You’re a profanity
Hannity

The gentleman ages nicely.

The problem with the "voter fraud" story

OK - my husband is right. I said it.

We need to talk about this "voter fraud" story that the media is spewing and not doing any actual reporting on.

1) The problem with people "raising questions" - McCain campaign, Obama campaign, media, or others - is that it raises a QUESTION. We then need to work to find the ANSWER.

2) What do false voter registrations mean? Do they mean that ACORN is trying to allow fake people to vote for Barack Obama? Does it mean that ACORN employees are trying to make a paycheck without doing the work of registering voters? Or does it mean that GOP operatives are trying to cast doubt on Obama's election, should he win?

Let's explore the reality.

1) ACORN pays by the hour. Not by the card. Still, there are instances of employees who did not want to take the time just phoning it in and falsifying cards.

2) Once cards are falsified, ACORN is REQUIRED to turn them in. It makes sense, right? No organization should be able to get registration cards filled out and then decide unilaterally that those should be thrown away. That's when you get into issues of partisanship.

3) Even if "false voters" are registered, first time voters must produce identification on election day. Therefore, if you register as Tony Romo or Taco Bell, you'd better have an ID or a piece of mail to back that up. Otherwise you CANNOT CAST A BALLOT.

4) Relatedly, there is a difference between voter registration fraud and VOTER FRAUD. Lets step out of the realm of the 2008 Presidential election and look at this article from 2007 about voter fraud. Apparently its more likely that a person would be struck by lightening than commit voter fraud - literally.

5) Fraudulent voter registration is reprehensible and ACORN should act accordingly. ACORN has meted out 3 degrees of punishment to employees depending on the degree of fault: 1. discipline, 2. dismissal, 3. prosecution. Note: they have turned employees over for prosecution when they've committed egregious fraud.

The fact of the matter is that ACORN is responsible for paying some irresponsible people to register voters. Whether that is by design or by accident, you'll have to decide for yourself based on the evidence (not the stump speeches of the candidates or the talking points of their surrogates on the cable news channels, please). And it is true that ACORN needs to do a MUCH better job of self-policing and PR. In both instances they are lacking.

However, lets not pretend that suddenly ACORN is overwhelming an unsuspecting elections infrastructure. We've been told for at least a year that liberal leaning groups were going to put a tremendous amount of money and effort into register people who had heretofore been uninterested in the election process. We saw that in the primaries: millions of people nationwide. To say now that you can't deal with that is lamentable, but it isn't ACORN's fault. It is the fault of our imperfect elections system, which we somehow can't muster the interest to deal with seriously until 3 weeks before a Presidential election.

How about we make this a national issue beginning on November 18th, 2008. Let's start talking about uniform elections and voter registration laws. Let's start talking about a national voting holiday. But to freak out now is to simply serve the campaigns.

DOW 36,000

Let's look back 9 years, to 1999, when James K. Glassman wrote his remarkable book DOW 36,000, suggesting that the stock market was significantly undervalued and would triple its value over 3 to 5 years.

By the way: in June 2008, Glassman became Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs in the Bush administration.

And these are the guys who want to privatize social security. Nice, huh?

California voter guides

Now that I have kids and a wood-burning stove for heat, I rely more than ever on voter guides to give me a quick sense of what the ballot measures are really about. Often they can help you figure out precisely which part of the measure you want to research more. (Although that measure from the last election on Indian Gaming rights was obtuse no matter how much time you spent on it!)

So, in the spirit of sharing, here are a couple of links to voter guides I'd characterize as "progressive":

The Courage Campaign
SF Gate endorsements